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The Cody Blog: CW on RM: 10 Market Thoughts

Friday, September 22, 2006

CW on RM: 10 Market Thoughts

10 Market Thoughts
09/22/2006 4:28 PM

It was an intense week of action in the markets, and there was a lot of macroeconomic news flow to blame it on. Here's what's on my mind as we close out the week.

1. If spiking energy didn't matter to consumers while they kept spending over the past few years, why should we think energy's collapse will matter in our consumer outlook now?

2. Is there any, any, any remote possibility that housing will actually strengthen again?

3. What if, now that even DaimlerChrysler has all but thrown in the towel and that the Philly Fed and who knows what other macrodata are being hit by Detroit's problems, Detroit's fundamentals have finally bottomed?

4. What if it turns out that the automakers actually roll out some products that consumers really dig?

5. Why can't the automakers become "tech" companies and innovate in ways they used to in decades past?

6. Was it too obvious to buy Google on Yahoo!'s warning? Sure was a lot of commentary on both sides of that bet.

7. Is it time to bet that Nokia will be OK this quarter and guide fine for next?

8. Should I pair that idea with a Motorola short because the market has deemed that Moto can do no wrong lately?

9. I complain all the time about the fallacies of stereotyping, er, grouping stocks by market cap and sector, such as "big-cap tech." That said, is the strength in Cisco, Motorola, Microsoft, Apple and Oracle a function of money flowing into "big-cap tech" as a sector because the rest of the world doesn't see it my way?

10. What if the Zune does bomb as badly as most all the world thinks it will? Does that present downside risk to Microsoft? Probably not. Would a Zune boom present upside to Microsoft? Probably so.

I am going to get outside and hit some tennis balls on these last days of summer-like weather here in New York City. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

1 Comments:

Blogger dvv7 said...

I heard that margins in auto-making are not good at all. In fact, most money are made on financing car purchases. So they tried to cut down on operational costs, not expand investment programmes to transform them into high-tech etc, etc

9/26/2006 08:43:00 PM  

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